If you believe in the Bret Saberhagen Theory then Josh Beckett is poised to have a big year for the Red Sox in 2009. For those of you who are not familiar with the Bret Saberhagen Theory, I will explain.

Bret Saberhagen was one of the best pitchers in baseball and one of my favorite players to watch from 1984 – 2001, pitching for the Royals, Mets, Rockies and Red Sox. But it was from 1984-1991 with the Royals where Saberhagen had his most success. Saberhagen in those 8 years was 110-78, had a era of 3.27, won 2 Cy Young Awards and a World Series title in 1985. Despite all of his success, Saberhagen was rather inconsistent in those years. He had an uncanny ability to pitch extremely well in odd years and pitch below his standards in even years. Take a look:

Even Years

84. 10-11 3.48                                        

86. 7-12 4.15

88. 14-16 3.80

90. 5-9 3.27

Odd Years

85. 20-6 2.87 Cy Young

87. 18-10 3.36

89. 23-6 2.16 Cy Young

91. 13-8 3.07

As you can see, a pretty significant difference between even years and odd years. Thus, the Saberhagen Theory was created. If there is a pitcher in today’s game where the Saberhagen Theory might apply….it would be Red Sox ace, Josh Beckett. Beckett has been rather mediocre in even years and very good in odd years. Take a look

Even Years

02. 6-7 4.10

04. 9-9 3.79

06. 16-11 5.01

08. 12-10 4.03

Odd Years

01. 2-2 1.50

03. 9-8 3.04 World Series MVP

05. 15-8 3.38

07. 20-7 3.27 ALCS MVP

To sum up Beckett, in even years he is 43-27 with a 4.23 era and in odd years he is 46-25 with a 2.80 era. Pretty amazing for someone as talented as Beckett.

So if you believe the Saberhagen Theory applies to Josh Beckett and coupled with Beckett showing up to Spring Training in the best shape of his life, then Beckett should once again be one of the top pitchers in 2009.

By The Baseball Index