Zack Greinke: What’s His Trade Market?

December 18th, 2010

The internet and baseball world was a buzz last night when it was reported that Kansas City Royals’ ace Zack Greinke fired his agent and then demanded a trade. And by all indications, the Royals will grant Greinke his wish.

It’s hard to blame Greinke for demanding a trade. The Royals have had one winning season in the last 15 years and things don’t look to improve in 2011. I wrote two weeks ago when the Royals signed Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera that they would be the worst team in baseball next season.

Now that it’s pretty clear Greinke wants out of Dodge, let’s take a look at the pros, cons, and which teams could be potential destinations for the 27-year-old right-hander.

Greinke wants out of Kansas City

Pros

After years of dealing with personal problems, Greinke finally started to turn things around in 2008. Over the last three seasons, Greinke has compiled a 3.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 8.4 K’s/9 in 651.2 innings.

His 3.25 ERA ranks fourth amongst all Major League starters over the last three seasons. His 19.6 WAR also ranks fourth amongst all Major League starting pitchers during that time period as well.

Greinke got things rolling in the 2008 season and in 2009, he put everything together. He won the AL Cy Young that season as he finished the year with a 2.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 9.5 K’s/9 in 229.1 innings.

With two-years and $27 million remaining on his current contract, Greinke is a very affordable No. 1 or 2 starter.

Cons

Despite his personal problem behind him, I always get the feeling Greinke would rather pitch in his house instead of a Major League mound in front of people. I watched him receive his AL Cy Young award from the year before and he looked so uncomfortable that he turned a really nice ceremony into an awkward experience for everyone involved.

I felt how uncomfortable he was through the TV.

What is going to happen if he gets traded to big market team where there are 10 cameras in your face at all times and more than 10,000 people in the stands? It’s definitely a big concern for a any team — not just a big market team — that is interested in acquiring Greinke.

Another concern a team might have about Greinke is his 2010 season. His K/9 of 7.4 was his lowest since his 5-17 2005 season and his 4.17 ERA was his highest since that same 2005 season.

Is that a start of a trend or just an aberration? I believe it was just an aberration, but you never know.

Greinke also has a limited no-trade clause in his contract that blocks him from being traded to 15 teams. He would have to waive this to be traded to any of the teams on his no-trade list, which includes the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and Washington Nationals

The last con in regards to trading for Greinke is the prospects that a team is going to have to give up. The Royals are going to ask for the farm for Greinke and a team better have one in order to acquire him.

A team is going to need two to three and maybe even four upper-level prospects in order to get him. Not too many teams have that caliber of prospects.

Now that we have looked at the pros and cons of Greinke, let’s take a look at the teams who might be potential matches for the Orlando, FL native.

New York Yankees: Now that the Yankees whiffed on Cliff Lee, Greinke could be Plan B. The Yankees could put together a package around Phil Hughes or Jesus Montero. However, the Yankees have very big concerns about how Greinke would hold up in New York.

Toronto Blue Jays: Greinke could be the Blue Jays’ replacement for Roy Halladay at the top of their rotation. The Blue Jays have stock piled a lot of young players over the last couple of years and they could package a couple of them to land Greinke.

Texas Rangers: Like the Yankees, the Rangers whiffed on Lee and Greinke could be Plan B. I would say Texas is the logical landing spot for Greinke. The Rangers’ farm system is deep and Texas isn’t necessarily a pressure place to play.

New York Mets: With Johan Santana out until maybe the All Star break, the Mets are desperate for starting pitching. Even if Santana was healthy, the Mets could still use Greinke. The Mets might be a tough match because of their location and I am not sure if they want to clean out their farm system.

Washington Nationals: Even though the Nationals are on Greinke’s no-trade list, they could still make a play for him. The Nationals really need an influx of starting pitchers, but if Greinke wants to win, I am not sure he would accept a trade to Washington.

Chicago Cubs: The Cubs have been tied to Matt Garza all winter, but if they want to step things up, Greinke would be an option. The Cubs are desperate for a true ace and Greinke could be that guy.

Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers already acquired Shaun Marcum from the Toronto Blue Jays this winter, but with Prince Fielder a free agent at the end of the season, they are in win now mode. A rotation of Greinke, Marcum, Yovani Gallardo, and Randy Wolf would make Milwaukee instant contenders in the National League.

Colorado Rockies: The Rockies have Ubaldo Jimenez and a bunch of question marks in their starting rotation. I am sorry, but I am not sold on Jorge de la Rosa. The Rockies have a lot of young talent in their organization that they could trade and Greinke paired with Jimenez would give Colorado a nice one-two punch.

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