After the New York Mets fought back to score two runs in the bottom of the eighth and take a 4-3 lead against Kerry Wood and the Chicago Cubs, Mets’ manager was faced with an interesting decision in the top of the ninth. The Cubs had put two one with nobody out against closer Bobby Parnell thanks to a David Wright error and a double down the left field line by Bryan LaHair.

Parnell was then able to get Starlin Castro to ground back to the mound and then he struck out Reed Johnson for the second out. Collins was then faced with a game-changing decision: Does he pitch to Aramis Ramirez — the Cubs better hitter — with a base open?

Before the at-bat, if the Mets elected to pitch to Ramirez, they had a Win Expectancy of 81 percent. If they walked Ramirez and elected to pitch to Tony Campana, the Mets would have had a Win Expectancy of 86 percent.

Not only did Collins’ degree from Common Sense University suggest that he walk Ramirez and pitch to Campana, but the percentages suggest that as well. After all, Campana had a .618 OPS going into yesterday’s game and is the modern day Bob Dernier of the Cubs’ organization.

Collins for some odd reason decided to have Parnell pitch to Ramirez and Ramirez promptly singled through the hole between first and second to drive in two runs. With that one swing, the Mets went from a Win Expectancy of 84 percent to 16 percent. In the ninth, the Mets failed to score against Carlos Marmol and lost the game 5-4.

I know this was a meaningless game with nothing on the line in terms of the postseason. But one of a manager’s main responsibilities is to put his team in the best position to win. In this case, Collins didn’t do that and it cost the Mets a win.

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By The Baseball Index