San Diego Padres And Cincinnati Reds Complete Blockbuster Trade, Mat Latos Heads To Cincinnati
December 17th, 2011
After making the postseason for the first time in 15 years in 2010, the Cincinnati Reds had big aspirations for 2011. Unfortunately things didn’t work out for the Reds in 2011 as they slumped to a 79-83 record and a third place finish in the National League Central.
One of the main reasons for the Reds’ falloff in 2011 was their starting pitching. Reds’ starters were worth just 5.7 wins for the Reds, which was fourth worst in baseball. GM Walt Jocketty needed to do something this offseason to upgrade his starting rotation and today, he did that.
The Reds and San Diego Padres made a blockbuster trade this afternoon, which saw the Reds acquire Mat Latos for RHP Edinson Volquez, 1B Yonder Alonso, C Yasmani Grandal, and RHP Brad Boxberger. Both teams did well in this trade.
For the Reds, they get the potential No. 1 starter they desperately needed. Latos finished the 2011 season with a 3.47 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and a 3.52 xFIP in 194.1 innings. Over the past two seasons, there have only been five starters who have had a higher K/9 than Latos. Those starters are Brandon Morrow, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Jon Lester, and Yovani Gallardo. That’s some good company.
There are two very appealing aspects about Latos other than his natural God-given ability. First, he isn’t a product of Petco Park. His home and road splits are pretty similar. He has a 3.11 career ERA at home and a 3.57 ERA on the road and his K Percentage is nearly identical (23.6 at home to 23.4 on the road).
Secondly, he will be under the Reds’ control for at least the next five years and he isn’t even arbitration eligible for another two years. Latos won’t be a free agent until after the 2016 season.
With Latos now in the fold, the Reds’ starting rotation could look something like this come Opening Day…
1. Johnny Cueto
2. Latos
4. Homer Bailey
5. Mike Leake
The Reds also have Aroldis Chapman waiting in the wings. With those six, the Reds should be serious contenders in the National League Central.
For the Padres, they got quite a haul for Latos. With this deal, the Padres received three of the top-14 prospects in the Reds’ organization prior to the 2011 season according to Baseball Prospectus.
The two big prospects the Padres are receiving are Alonso and Grandal. Alonso was the sixth ranked prospect in the Reds’ organization prior to 2011 and did nothing to hurt that ranking in 2011. Alonso hit .296/.374/.486 with 12 HR’s in 409 PA’s in Triple-A and then hit .330/.398/.545 with five HR’s in 98 PA’s for the big club. He will immediately be penciled in as the Padres’ starting first baseman in 2012.
Grandal is a 23-year-old, switch-hitting catcher, who was the Reds’ first-round pick in the 2010 June Draft. He’s quickly moved through the Reds’ system and could find himself as the Padres’ starting catcher rather quickly. In 474 career minor league PA’s, Grandal has a .303/.401/.488 slash line with 14 HR’s.
Volquez has had an up and down career with the Reds. He looked like a star in the making in 2008 when he went 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA and finished fourth in the NL ROY voting. But then he was suspended for 50 games because he tested positive for PED’s and then he underwent Tommy John surgery. The last three years of his career have been a waste.
He came back in 2011, but clearly wasn’t the same pitcher. Volquez finished the 2011 season with a 5.71 ERA in 108.2 innings. His first inning struggles were stuff of legend. The Padres are hoping that Volquez can return to his 2008 form one-year removed from Tommy John surgery.
Boxberger was the Reds’ first-round pick in the 2009 June Draft and projects to be a back of the bullpen reliever at the Major League level. He had a 2.03 ERA in 62 innings between Double-A and Triple-A in 2011.
At first glance, I thought this was quite the haul for the Padres and that the Reds gave up way too much. But now that I have had a chance to take a step back, I think both teams did well here.
The Reds gave up players that they had no room for. Alonso was blocked by Joey Votto, Grandal was blocked by Devin Mesoraco, and Volquez is replaced by Latos.
The Padres got four players to help with their rebuilding process. All four players should help them down the road, especially Alonso and Grandal.
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