American League East

1. Z – Tampa Bay Rays: A full year of Matt Moore and Desmond Jennings and Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton, and David Price will have better years in 2012 than they did in 2011. I also like the Carlos Pena signing.

2. X – New York Yankees: Yes, the Yankees are getting older than the Wah Woo’s container of Chinese food in Frank Drebin’s refrigerator, but the trade for Michael Pineda and the signing of Hiroki Kuroda will get the Yankees into the postseason yet again.

3. Boston Red Sox: See Atlanta Braves from Friday’s post.

4. Toronto Blue Jays: Only if this team played in another division. There’s a lot of potential on this team, but they are still an ace away from being a 90+ win team instead of the 84-85 win team they will be in 2012.

5. Baltimore Orioles: I would like to say the Orioles are moving in the right direction, but I don’t even know if that’s the case. They will struggle to win 70 games.

American League Central

1. Z – Detroit Tigers: Having Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera, and Delmon Young playing defense on a daily basis will make Jim Leyland‘s eyes bleed. The Tigers will have enough offense to offset their terrible defense and win this division by default.

2. Cleveland Indians: A lot is going to depend on the status of Fausto Carmona and if Ubaldo Jimenez can regain his 2010 form. They’ll finish second in the division, but won’t be good enough to win the Wild Card.

3. Minnesota Twins: The Twins lost 99 games last year because everything that could go wrong did. Look for Joe Mauer to have a bounce-back season and I like the signings of Ryan Doumit and Josh Willingham.

4. Kansas City Royals: The Royals will begin to show improvement this year and 2014 will be the year they arrive. The Royals have a good bullpen and I really liked their trade for Jonathan Sanchez. Look for Eric Hosmer to have a nice year.

5. Chicago White Sox: Robin Ventura will have his work cut out for him this year. The worst state a franchise can be in is one of not knowing if they are coming or going and that’s where the White Sox are.

American League West

1. Z – Texas Rangers: I thought they really dropped the ball when it came to signing Prince Fielder, but Yu Darvish should be able to replace C.J. Wilson and they still have the best roster in the division top to bottom.

2. Y – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Angels were the big winners of this offseason signing by Wilson and Albert Pujols. I am still not sure if they have the offense to get past the Rangers.

3. Seattle Mariners: The Mariners will be bad once again in 2012, but not as bad as the Oakland A’s. Jesus Montero better be good.

4. Oakland A’s. The A’s are once again in the rebuilding phase and they will be the worst team in the AL this year. Here’s to Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour having good seasons so Billy Beane can trade them come July 31.

Z = Division Winner

Y = Wild Card Winner

X = Wild Card Winner If Baseball Adds A Second Wild Card For 2012

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Obviously things are going to change from now to Opening Day, but it’s never too early to look how things might shape up in the National League this season.

National League East

1. Z – Philadelphia Phillies : Despite the loss of Howard and this team getting up there in age, they still have Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels and that will be enough to get them another NL East title.

2. X – Washington Nationals: I like what they have done this winter. They will need to add another bat during the season.

3. Atlanta Braves: It usually takes a team a year or two to recover from an epic collapse.

4. Miami Marlins: They aren’t too far behind the Nationals and Braves, but 89-90 wins will be needed to get the Wild Card spot and I don’t think the Marlins improved by 17 wins this offseason despite their spending spree.

5. New York Mets: This franchise is a mess. It’s going to be long year, but not a long line for Shake Shack at Citi Field in 2012.

National League Central

1. Z – St. Louis Cardinals*: Despite the loss of Albert Pujols, the Cardinals will be the class of this division. Getting back Adam Wainwright back will be a huge plus.

2. Y – Cincinnati Reds: Acquiring Mat Latos and signing Ryan Madson was huge for the Reds and big improvements over what they had in 2011. They had a dropoff in 2011, but look for them to bounce back strong 2012.

3. Milwaukee Brewers: I could have seen them surviving the loss of Prince Fielder, but to lose Fielder and then  Ryan Braun for 50 games is too much for any team to handle. Look for Zack Greinke to make another run at the Cy Young in 2012.

4. Chicago Cubs: Theo Epstein and Co. have a lot of work to do in the Windy City and I believe will eventually turn things around in Chicago. However, the Cubs will be hard to watch in 2012 and will be lucky to win 75 games.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates: 2012 will be another losing season in Pittsburgh. They just don’t have much going on and Pedro Alvarez better step up this season. I like Andrew McCutchen and Neil Walker a lot, but unfortunately for them, they don’t have much talent around them.

6. Houston Astros: The Astros lost 106 games in 2011 and it might be worse in 2012. This team is really, really bad. I was looking through their depth cart in our new fancy Depth Charts section (shameless plug) and I have no clue who half of the guys on their roster are.

National League West

1. Z – San Francisco Giants: The Giants got fleeced in the Jonathan Sanchez – Melky Cabrera swap, but I liked the Angel Pagan move. I don’t think they have more talent than the Arizona Diamondbacks, but I think they will get big years from Buster Posey and Brandon Belt and find a way to win.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks will be the Cincinnati Reds of 2011; Young team that made the postseason the year before, everyone thinks they are on the rise, but takes a step back the next year.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers: Despite the mess off the field last year, the Dodgers will managed to win 82 games in 2011. I think they could be a little bit better, but not by much. Their bullpen should be interesting. If Javy Guerra and Kenley Jansen can stabilize the back-end of the bullpen, the Dodgers will be a tough out in 2012.

4. Colorado Rockies: I have no idea which direction this team is going in. They get rid of Huston Street, but then bring in Casey Blake. They trade a younger Chris Iannetta for an aging Ramon Hernandez? Very confusing. This team will finish with 79 – 80 wins in 2012.

5. San Diego Padres: The Padres will once again have a hard time scoring runs and talent they got back for Adrian Gonzalez and Mat Latos will still take a couple of years to develop. Once that crop of young talent develops, they will be very good.

On Monday, we will look at the early American League predictions.

Z = Division Winner

Y = Wild Card Winner

X = Wild Card Winner If Baseball Adds A Second Wild Card For 2012

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The Indians signed 1B Casey Kotchman to a one-year, $3 million contract according to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Kotchman spent last season with the Tampa Bay Rays and had a career season.

This deal tells me two things:

1. The ship has sailed on Matt LaPorta. What a disappointment. LaPorta was the crown jewel of the C.C. Sabathia trade and has been a complete flop with the Indians. He hit .247/.299/.412 with 11 HR’s in 385 PA’s with the Indians last season and Kotchman, even if he won’t have a .351 wOBA in 2012, will be an upgrade over LaPorta.

Not only will Kotchman be an upgrade with the bat, but with the glove as well. Kotchman has always been known as one of the better defending first basemen in baseball throughout the years.

2. Carlos Santana is going to be behind the plate full time in 2012. Santana appeared in 65 games as a first baseman in 2011 and that is most likely not to happen again in 2012. Lou Marson resumes his role as backup catcher.

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Jackson is the latest National pitching acquisition

The Nationals have signed RHP Edwin Jackson to a one-year contract according to FOXSports.com’s Ken Rosenthal. The deal is believed to be somewhere between $8 – $12 million.

Jackson finished the 2011 season with a 3.79 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and a 43.8 percent Ground Ball Percentage in 199.2 innings with both the Chicago White Sox and St. Louis Cardinals. The Nationals will be Jackson’s seventh team in nine seasons.

My take on Jackson is that he is a serviceable third starter and nothing more. He will give you innings, but at the same time, he will give you some quality innings. He’s never been a four-win a year pitcher. That’s a pretty interesting fact considering Jackson was a hot name this offseason.

With the Nationals, Jackson will slot in as their No. 3 starter behind Stephen Strasburg and Gonzalez. Washington also has Jordan Zimmermann as their fourth starter and a trio of John Lannan, Ross Detwiler, and Chien-Ming Wang battling as their fifth starter.

With their moves this offseason, the Nationals are gearing up for a playoff run in 2012. They finished one-game under .500 last season and I think they can make the postseason in 2012 and especially if Major League Baseball agrees to add a second Wild Card team.

Do I think the Nationals can win the National League East? No, I don’t. I think the Phillies are the class of that division. However, between the Nationals, Atlanta Braves, and Miami Marlins, the NL East should be one of the most competitive divisions in baseball in 2012.

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Weeks' ankle still isn't 100%

One of those hands on deck that I was referring to is second baseman Rickie Weeks. Weeks was limited to just 116 games last season because of an ankle injury he suffered in July. The injury looked pretty nasty at the time and it looked like he broke his ankle.

Weeks made a comeback in September, but he looked like a man trying to play on one leg. He had just two extra-base hits in 46 plate appearances in September and hit just .133 in the playoffs.

You would think that an ankle injury that didn’t require surgery would be healed six months after the fact, but that hasn’t been the case with Weeks. According to Tim Haudicourt on Twitter, Weeks said his ankle isn’t 100 percent there yet and he is still rehabbing.

That has to be very concerning to a Brewer team that like I said earlier, needs all the guys they have left to produce at a high level to mask the loss of Fielder and Bruan. If Weeks isn’t 100 percent entering going into the season, then the Brewers might be in even bigger trouble than they already are.

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Reddick had some success, but he was shipped off to Oakland in the Andrew Bailey trade. Boston got Ryan Sweeney, who is a right fielder in that trade, but there was no way he was going to be their full-time starting right fielder in 2012.

Sweeney is a nice little player, but he is not a full-time starting right fielder on a championship ball club. If Sweeney is part of the regular outfield rotation, then he needs to be a platoon player. Sweeney only had a .462 OPS against left-handed pitching in 2011.

Sweeney needs a right-handed compliment against left-handed pitching and Boston found that right-handed compliment in Cody Ross last week. Boston signed Ross to a one-year, $3 million contract and for the role he is going to play in 2012, this is a good signing by the Red Sox.

Ross hit .240/.325/.405 with 14 HR’s in 465 PA’s for the San Francisco Giants in 2011, but it was his career production against left-handed pitching that was attractive to Boston. Ross has a career .912 OPS against left-handed pitching in 759 PA’s.

With Ross’ success against lefties and Sweeney’s success against righties, the Red Sox will have a solid platoon in right in 2012. If Ross and Sweeney are asked to play to their strengths this season and not asked to do too much, then both should help Boston improve on the 0.7 WAR their right fielders produced last season.

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While the team in 2013 might look different with new ownership on board, let’s take a look at the potential 2012 Opening Day lineup they might be inheriting.

Ethier needs to be healthy for the Dodgers in 2012

1. Dee Gordon, SS

2. Mark Ellis, 2B

3. Andre Ethier, RF

4. Matt Kemp, CF

5. Juan Uribe, 3B

6. James Loney, 1B

7. Jerry Sands, LF

8. A.J. Ellis, C

Believe it or not, the Dodgers’ offense finished 12th in baseball with a 24.1 WAR in 2011 and that was without Either being healthy in the second half, Uribe playing in only 77 games, and being towards the bottom o the pacfk in HR’s (117). There is some potential for the Dodger offense to be better in 2012, but not by much.

The issue with this lineup is that it is very top heavy. In my opinion, there are really only two guys in this lineup that scare me as a pitcher — Ethier and Kemp. Other than that, there is little power in this lineup and if Kemp and Either say go 0-for-8 in a game, I am not sure how the Dodgers are going to score enough runs on a consistent basis.

Having Gordon at the top of the lineup should help. He did hit .304 in 233 plate appearances and did chip in 24 SB’s. Having him turn singles into doubles and triples will make it easier for the Dodgers to manufacture runs.

However, if Gordon is going to develop into a legit leadoff hitter, then he is going to need to get on base more often. A three percent BB Percentage is not going to cut it from the leadoff spot nor any other spot in the lineup for that matter.

If Gordon can get on base, then Kemp will have no problem knocking him and luckily for the Dodgers, Kemp had his head on straight in 2011. Kemp finished second in the National League MVP voting as he finished the year with a .324/.399/.586 slash line with 39 HR’s and 40 SB’s. As long as he is healthy and has his head on straight, Kemp should come close to repeating those numbers in 2012.

Some other things to look for in this lineup are: If Ellis struggles out the gate, look for Adam Kennedy to get some playing time at second base. Ellis’ seven HR’s in 2011 were more than all of the Dodger second basemen combined in 2011, but Ellis also had a .288 OBP. He will need to do better than that to keep his job.

Also keep an eye on Sands in left field. He showed a good eye at the plate in 227 PA’s for the Dodgers in 2011 (BB Percentage of 11 percent), but it will be interesting to see if his power develops at the Major League level in 2012. The Dodgers need more than a .136 ISO from Sands this season.

Overall, as I mentioned above, I think the Dodgers will have a hard time scoring runs on a consistent basis in 2012. Outside of Ethier and Kemp, there isn’t much fire power and if you don’t have fire power, then you need speed. Outside of Gordon and Kemp, the Dodgers don’t have that either.

This is a .500 offense and that’s right around where the Dodgers will be in 2012.

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$4.5 million for Cordero is not a bad deal at all, but I have my doubts as to how successful Cordero will be pitching in the American League East. Cordero’s numbers were declining facing the likes of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Houston Astros, and Chicago Cubs the majority of his games. How is he going to fare facing the likes of the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and Tampa Bay Rays.

If Cordero can’t regain his past form, the good news is that Cordero won’t be closing for the Blue Jays in 2012. That job will remain with Sergio Santos. If Cordero struggles, the Blue Jays can just demote and they won’t be scrambling for a closer.

The Blue Jays will roll out a Santos-Cordero-Jason Frasor threesome in the seventh, eighth, and ninth inning of games. That’s not great, but it sure isn’t bad either. The Blue Jays should have one of the more improved bullpens in 2012.

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Big Prince is headed to Motown

However, Tigers’ GM Dave Dombrowski wasn’t having any of that veteran DH Tom Foolery. Reminiscent of when Aaron Boone blew out his knee playing a pick-up basketball game and the New York Yankees going out and getting Alex Rodriguez, the Tigers reeled in a star of their own to replace a player who is lost for the year with a knee injury.

The Tigers today signed 1B Prince Fielder to a nine-year, $214 million contract. That’s an average annual salary of $23.78 million for those of you scoring at home.

This is a shocker. I don’t think anyone saw this coming, especially since the Tigers already have Miguel Cabrera at first base. However, Cabrera told a Venezuelan newspaper Lider en Deportes that he will move to third base to accommodate Fielder at first.

The Tigers will have one crappy defensive infield, but man, that lineup with Cabrera and Fielder in the three and four hole is going to be down-right scary. Fielder hit .299/.415/.566 with 38 HR’s in 162 games in 2011. You take those numbers and combine them with Cabrera’s .344/.448/.586 and 30 HR’s and the happiest person in the world might be Alex Avila. Avila is projected to hit fifth in the Tigers’ lineup in 2012 and he will have plenty runners on base when he comes to the plate.

The only negative to the actual contract itself is that it seemed like the Tigers bid against themselves. Nine years for Fielder is a lot of years to give a guy considering that there weren’t any other serious players for his services. The Tigers could have probably gotten away with giving Fielder a five or seven-year deal.

While the Tigers’ D might be really bad in 2012, their offense should make up for their defensive deficiencies. With a down American League Central, this move makes the Tigers the clear favorites in this division.

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Original Post. 1/9/12: As first reported by WFAN’s Sweeney Murdy, New York Yankees’ DH/C Jorge Posada will announce his retirement in the upcoming weeks. Posada was part of the “Core Four” in Yankee land along with Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, and Andy Pettitte.

I always thought Posada was the least important of the “Core Four,” much like Ray Jackson was the least important of the Michigan “Fab Five.” However, that shouldn’t diminish the fact that Posada had a tremendous career in the Bronx.

Posada will finish his career with a .273/.374/.474 slash line with 275 HR’s, five All Star Game selections, five Silver Slugger awards, and two, top-10 MVP finishes (2003 and 2007) in 17 seasons. And of course, he won four World Series titles with the Yankees.

Last year, Posada showed major decline as he had career-lows in OBP (.315), SLG (.398), and wOBA (.309). I am kind of glad Posada retired. There is nothing worse than seeing a guy hold on for one more season and has very little left. If Posada would have signed on with a team like the Tampa Bay Rays or Miami Marlins, it would have been like Keith Hernandez playing with the Cleveland Indians in his last season in the Major Leagues.

Now the question becomes, is Posada a Hall of Fame catcher? Here is how Posada stacks up against the last three catchers to be inducted into the HOF:

Source: FanGraphs — Jorge Posada, Johnny Bench, Gary Carter

Posada will go down as a very good catcher, but not a Hall of Fame catcher. He will be in the same class as Ted Simmons and Lance Parrish. These guys were very good catchers and some of the best in their era, but not quite HOF worthy.

I would imagine Posada will have a press conference when he is officially ready to announce his retirement.

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